Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:18:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04b4…f732 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-5%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day37.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$49
crypto 40% +$5
sports 16% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -8.1% -16.9% 58% 50% -24.8%
≤30d 24 -8.1% -16.9% 58% 50% -24.8%
≤90d 24 -8.1% -16.9% 58% 50% -24.8%
all 24 -8.1% -16.9% 58% 50% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 50% -24.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 38% -32.0%
15% -32.1% 17% -38.6%
20% -38.8% 12% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$15 +77%
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 25 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $14 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $19 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 25 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$3 +52%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $41 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +14%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 7h
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $12 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $20 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $20 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 0¢ $0 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 80¢ $9 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 77¢ $15 7h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 8h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Sharks 100¢ $19 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $19 10h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 61¢ $4 10h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 83¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 11h
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $15 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $16 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $12 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records