Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04b5…1d8e politics 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,812 (-1%) realized −$1,810 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate24%37W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,017per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$20
14 days−$70
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$100
other 32% −$122
sports 15% −$1,592
world 6% −$4
economics 2% −$4
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 40 +3.6% -6.3% 12% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 96 -7.9% -16.6% 9% 6% -11.2%
all 153 +4.0% -5.9% 24% 10% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 10% -10.6%
10% -14.9% 10% -19.1%
15% -23.2% 8% -27.0%
20% -30.7% 8% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,456) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$26 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$403
Realized−$1,810
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses37 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage138d
Avg bet$1,017
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $405 $403 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,467 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 16 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $772 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,184 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,187 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,367 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,190 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,230 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,012 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,726 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,171 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,565 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $5,759 −$7 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,123 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,956 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $350 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $505 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,456 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,386 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,903 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,070 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $594 −$1 -0%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $46 +$57 +124%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,447 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $3,533 −$4 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $612 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $581 −$1 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 22 $83 +$59 +70%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $305 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $304 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $314 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $3,193 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $312 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,304 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $308 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $327 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $915 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $916 3h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $798 5h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $799 8h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $772 25h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $772 27h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $833 28h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $834 32h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $822 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $823 2d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $604 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $605 3d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $405 3d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,023 3d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,025 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,238 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,240 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,188 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,190 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $919 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $920 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,010 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,012 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,155 8d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,156 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,081 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,083 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,169 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,171 9d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,256 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.72 · official $402.72 (match) · 495 history records