Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:31:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04b9…94dc crypto 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42 (-9%) realized −$41 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%43W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$32
crypto 45% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 50% -5.7%
≤30d 6 -22.3% -29.7% 50% 50% -69.0%
≤90d 37 -17.3% -25.2% 43% 38% -16.2%
all 91 -3.7% -12.9% 47% 44% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 44% -19.2%
10% -21.2% 41% -26.9%
15% -28.8% 36% -34.0%
20% -35.8% 32% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses43 / 48
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)91 / 94
History coverage150d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? England 54¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 25¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss? Sri Lanka 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $4 −$2 -57%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Sussex May 25 $1 $0 +38%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 24 $1 $0 +12%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $11 −$10 -91%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 16 $11 −$1 -5%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $22 −$12 -52%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $21 +$14 +66%
T20 Series Pakistan vs Zimbabwe, Women: Pakistan vs Zimbabwe - Who win May 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians - Who wins the t May 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $16 +$1 +4%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand - Wh May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -84%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 13 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 13 $15 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 13 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $76 +$12 +16%
T20 Series Pakistan vs Zimbabwe, Women: Pakistan vs Zimbabwe - Who win May 12 $11 +$4 +34%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad - Who win May 12 $5 +$5 +93%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs Scotland May 12 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 12 $5 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 12 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 12 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 12 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 12 $5 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 22 $1 +$1 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 22 $1 +$1 +105%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Feb 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -99%
T20 Series England Lions vs Pakistan A: England Lions vs Pakistan A Feb 22 $3 +$2 +78%
ODI Series Australia vs India, Women: Australia vs India Feb 22 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Feb 22 $2 +$7 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Feb 22 $3 −$3 -99%
T20 Asia Cup Rising Stars, Women: Bangladesh A vs India A Feb 22 $5 +$3 +51%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs England Feb 22 $13 −$11 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 21 $3 +$4 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 21 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 25¢ $1 26m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss BUY Sri Lanka 45¢ $1 54m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? BUY England 54¢ $1 55m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley SELL Dane Sweeny 1¢ $0 1h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Dane Sweeny 15¢ $1 1h
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 19¢ $2 20d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 76¢ $2 20d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 53¢ $2 20d
T20 Blast: Kent vs Sussex SELL Sussex 75¢ $2 21d
T20 Blast: Kent vs Sussex BUY Sussex 53¢ $1 21d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings SELL Punjab Kings 73¢ $1 23d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 66¢ $1 23d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 3¢ $1 24d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 31¢ $11 24d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 34¢ $10 30d
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand SELL New Zealand 44¢ $10 30d
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 45¢ $11 31d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings SELL Lucknow Super Giants 98¢ $10 31d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings SELL Chennai Super Kings 2¢ $1 31d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Lucknow Super Giants 98¢ $10 31d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Chennai Super Kings 12¢ $1 31d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Chennai Super Kings 51¢ $11 31d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians SELL Punjab Kings 61¢ $22 32d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians BUY Punjab Kings 31¢ $12 32d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians SELL Mumbai Indians 62¢ $12 32d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians 45¢ $9 32d
T20 Series Pakistan vs Zimbabwe, Women: Pakistan vs Zimbabwe - Who win BUY Zimbabwe 55¢ $1 33d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians - Who wins the t BUY Punjab Kings 51¢ $10 33d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R SELL Kolkata Knight Riders 10¢ $3 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.79 · official $1.79 (match) · 220 history records