Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:07:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04ba…b34d sports 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,159 (-43%) realized −$1,158 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$285
7 days−$1,297
14 days−$1,307
30 days−$1,307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$339
other 39% −$619
crypto 8% −$44
world 3% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-44.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -37.9% -43.8% 25% 25% -53.8%
≤30d 52 -39.1% -44.9% 25% 25% -54.0%
≤90d 52 -39.1% -44.9% 25% 25% -54.0%
all 52 -39.1% -44.9% 25% 25% -54.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.9% 25% -54.0%
10% -50.2% 23% -58.4%
15% -55.0% 17% -62.4%
20% -59.4% 17% -66.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$48 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$1,158
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 39
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage7d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $119 −$119 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 21 $119 −$119 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$16 -31%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $58 −$34 -58%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$6 -28%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 +$10 +69%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$46 -90%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $85 +$168 +197%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $56 −$55 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $35 −$35 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $71 −$70 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $76 −$75 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $127 −$125 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$9 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $56 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $37 +$47 +130%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $75 +$16 +21%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $95 −$94 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$21 +140%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 +$42 +109%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $136 +$38 +28%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $63 −$62 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $69 +$19 +28%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $123 −$122 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$77 +152%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $52 +$17 +32%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 −$8 -32%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $14 +$21 +149%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $70 −$69 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $75 −$65 -86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$40 +414%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 −$16 -64%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $95 −$87 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $14 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 26¢ $35 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 29¢ $7 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 28¢ $23 10h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $51 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $51 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $15 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 81¢ $26 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 3¢ $4 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 4¢ $1 14h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 17h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 17h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $51 17h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Curaçao 100¢ $253 17h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 33¢ $85 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $51 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $56 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $34 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 45¢ $61 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $35 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $71 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.96 · official $137.97 (match) · 118 history records