Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:03:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
04 0x04bb…dfc5 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate65%28W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 71% −$65
world 18% +$245
politics 6% −$59
crypto 5% −$96
other 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -29.7% -36.4% 50% 50% -21.8%
≤30d 5 +11.2% +0.6% 80% 80% +17.4%
≤90d 23 -0.0% -9.5% 74% 57% -9.6%
all 43 +0.5% -9.1% 65% 53% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 53% -8.7%
10% -17.8% 35% -17.4%
15% -25.7% 26% -25.4%
20% -33.0% 16% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$30 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$517
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses28 / 15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)43 / 48
History coverage143d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $230 $239 +$9 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 88¢ 94¢ $90 $95 +$5 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 73¢ 68¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 74¢ 64¢ $42 $37 −$5 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 19 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +18%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $50 +$15 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $50 +$18 +37%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $50 +$25 +49%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 01 $213 +$198 +93%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 01 $50 +$8 +17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Apr 17 $100 −$82 -82%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 17 $120 −$113 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 08 $50 −$40 -80%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 08 $164 −$29 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 02 $5 +$3 +62%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 02 $100 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 01 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 01 $115 −$103 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 01 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 01 $1 $0 +25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $328 +$38 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $429 +$9 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 27 $223 +$8 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 27 $300 +$22 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 27 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 25 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 23 $200 +$72 +36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 19 $70 −$19 -27%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 16 $15 −$10 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 15 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 15 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 15 $4 −$1 -31%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 15 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 11 $5 $0 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 06 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? Mar 06 $10 +$4 +41%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 06 $10 +$2 +20%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $10 +$3 +34%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $5 +$4 +72%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 22 $5 −$1 -19%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 19 $5 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 95¢ $60 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 65¢ $37 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 93¢ $70 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $5 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $50 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 73¢ $50 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $51 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $40 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $60 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $30 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $100 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $20 7d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $50 45d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 67¢ $50 45d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 73¢ $50 45d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $411 52d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 50¢ $153 66d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 10¢ $18 66d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? SELL No 4¢ $7 66d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? BUY No 46¢ $20 75d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 75d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY Yes 96¢ $130 75d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 39¢ $10 75d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY No 7¢ $2 75d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY No 5¢ $2 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $516.82 · official $516.82 (match) · 140 history records