Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:15:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04bd…39a0 sports 342 markets active 14h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$160,670 (+31%) realized +$160,111 · open +$559
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate41%186W / 271L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,507per market
Trades / day65.4pace
Fees−$6,061est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$29,907now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$38,046
politics 1% −$14
other 0% +$469
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -74.4% -76.9% 12% 9% -47.6%
≤30d 289 -36.1% -42.1% 35% 26% -18.7%
≤90d 457 -23.7% -31.0% 41% 30% -14.6%
all 457 -23.7% -31.0% 41% 30% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.0% 30% -14.6%
10% -37.6% 27% -22.8%
15% ← realistic here -43.6% 25% -30.2%
20% -49.1% 21% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,625) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$813 vs −$681 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$29,907
Realized+$160,111
Unrealized+$559
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses186 / 271
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$6,061
Open positions6
Markets (closed)457 / 342
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$1,507
Trades / day65.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 86¢ 85¢ $2,738 $2,724 −$14 (-1%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 90¢ 99¢ $962 $1,053 +$91 (+9%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 6¢ 22¢ $228 $767 +$539 (+237%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $214 $145 −$69 (-32%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $104 $116 +$12 (+11%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 83¢ 87¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 227 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual Jun 19 $4 +$6 +150%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 19 $667 −$667 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: INTZ e-Sports vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO1) - Circuito Desafian Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs Leviatan Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $326 −$326 -100%
LoL: Verdant vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,162 −$1,162 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 19 $628 −$628 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $566 −$566 -100%
LoL: Ici Japon Corp. Esport vs ZYB Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Jun 19 $123 −$123 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $674 −$674 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Jun 19 $2,691 −$2,691 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 19 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Jun 19 $206 −$204 -99%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 19 $229 −$229 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Jun 19 $998 −$998 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Jun 19 $1,006 −$1,006 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $348 −$348 -100%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5) Jun 19 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-08? Jun 19 $224 −$224 -100%
Game Handicap: GX (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5) Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $604 −$604 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 19 $1,286 −$1,286 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $430 −$430 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $583 −$583 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,125 −$1,125 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $313 −$313 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $276 −$249 -90%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch Jun 19 $217 −$217 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $620 −$620 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Jun 19 $63 −$63 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 19 $1,636 −$1,636 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 19 $1,579 −$1,579 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: LOS vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $977 −$977 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall Jun 19 $711 −$711 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,927 −$1,927 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $2,921 −$2,921 -100%
LoL: Solary vs BIG - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $234 −$234 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $843 −$843 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,008 −$1,008 -100%
LoL: Solary vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,588 −$1,588 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $656 −$656 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - Prim Jun 19 $660 −$660 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $595 −$595 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $59 −$59 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 19 $232 −$232 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $107 14h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $179 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $70 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $12 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $38 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $744 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOS 100¢ $1 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOS 100¢ $62 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOS 100¢ $19 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOS 100¢ $23 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOS 100¢ $67 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOS 100¢ $34 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOS 100¢ $4 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOS 100¢ $30 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $37 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $0 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $918 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $1,596 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $36 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $33 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $4 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $103 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $26 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $200 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $2,997 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $2,155 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $265 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $50 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $350 4d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 100¢ $178 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,906.84 · official $29,906.84 (match) · 3500 history records