Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x04bd…be27
crypto · 205 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$85 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$85 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses80 / 122
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)202 / 205
History coverage77d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 3 History 202 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $18 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $17 +$1 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $27 −$2 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$10 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% −$75
sports 9% −$3
other 7% +$1
world 6% −$15
tech 4% +$1
finance 2% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 26m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 2h
United States leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 98¢ $6 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 99¢ $6 2h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $6 6h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 99¢ $6 8h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $6 8h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 99¢ $6 8h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 100¢ $6 8h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 99¢ $6 8h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY No 99¢ $6 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 91¢ $17 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $24 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $3 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 99¢ $6 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 99¢ $6 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 99¢ $6 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 99¢ $6 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 99¢ $6 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 99¢ $6 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 98¢ $6 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $2 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 40¢ $2 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $3 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 68¢ $7 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +11.1% +0.5% 67% 5% -6.0%
≤30d 21 +11.1% +0.5% 67% 5% -6.0%
≤90d 202 -19.6% -27.2% 40% 28% -19.0%
all 202 -19.6% -27.2% 40% 28% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 28% -19.0%
10% -34.2% 28% -26.8%
15% -40.6% 27% -33.8%
20% -46.4% 27% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.08 · official $18.08 (match) · 547 history records