Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:00:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x04bf…7caf
other · 530 markets active 23h ago
4.5score
+$29,743 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$26,995 · open +$3,248
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$71,154
Realized+$26,995
Unrealized+$3,248
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses286 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions78
Markets (closed)452 / 530
History coverage146d
Avg bet$726
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 78 History 452 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,113
14 days+$370
30 days+$754
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $8,742 $9,008 +$267 (+3%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $6,376 $6,512 +$136 (+2%)
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 67¢ 54¢ $3,166 $2,569 −$597 (-19%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 77¢ 98¢ $1,933 $2,441 +$508 (+26%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 74¢ 96¢ $1,844 $2,397 +$553 (+30%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 89¢ 98¢ $1,775 $1,963 +$188 (+11%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 86¢ 97¢ $1,730 $1,931 +$201 (+12%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $1,660 $1,850 +$190 (+11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 91¢ 99¢ $1,365 $1,487 +$122 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 69¢ 98¢ $1,042 $1,475 +$433 (+42%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 85¢ 74¢ $1,710 $1,474 −$236 (-14%)
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 89¢ $1,334 $1,401 +$67 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 68¢ $1,434 $1,375 −$59 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 75¢ 91¢ $1,130 $1,365 +$235 (+21%)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No 55¢ 60¢ $1,118 $1,227 +$109 (+10%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 79¢ 79¢ $1,185 $1,185 +$0 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 89¢ 96¢ $1,068 $1,152 +$84 (+8%)
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? No 82¢ 85¢ $1,095 $1,134 +$38 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 78¢ 74¢ $1,170 $1,118 −$52 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 80¢ 93¢ $955 $1,115 +$161 (+17%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? No 84¢ 92¢ $998 $1,091 +$93 (+9%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 77¢ 90¢ $829 $971 +$142 (+17%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $960 $964 +$4 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 96¢ $660 $961 +$301 (+46%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 50¢ 90¢ $504 $906 +$402 (+80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $385 −$361 -94%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in June? Jun 09 $179 +$124 +70%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $498 +$102 +20%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will gas hit (Low) $4.20 by May 31? Jun 05 $154 +$46 +30%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $172 −$172 -100%
Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 05 $308 −$308 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 05 $398 −$398 -100%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 in June? Jun 05 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 in June? Jun 04 $370 +$130 +35%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $350 −$150 -43%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? Jun 03 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $583 +$27 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $570 −$190 -33%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 03 $2,232 −$2,232 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 2? Jun 02 $204 +$96 +47%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? Jun 02 $412 +$238 +58%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 2? Jun 02 $106 +$14 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 02 $746 +$54 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $761 +$239 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $1,799 +$324 +18%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $187 +$7 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $410 +$90 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $385 +$115 +30%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May? Jun 01 $390 +$110 +28%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $405 +$95 +23%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $386 +$302 +78%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $521 +$179 +34%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $700 +$300 +43%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $856 +$150 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $877 +$133 +15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $1,700 +$300 +18%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 01 $370 −$370 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? May 30 $395 −$395 -100%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele May 30 $371 +$143 +38%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? May 30 $428 +$61 +14%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? May 30 $481 +$19 +4%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 30 $366 +$231 +63%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $680 +$320 +47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $773 +$237 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 30 $902 +$148 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $1,102 +$298 +27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $1,155 +$345 +30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 30 $2,222 +$278 +12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? May 29 $225 +$268 +119%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 27 $1,365 +$130 +10%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se May 27 $440 +$60 +14%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen May 27 $570 +$430 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 29% −$7,114
other 21% +$31,163
finance 13% +$7,006
economics 11% +$611
crypto 10% +$462
politics 7% −$4,585
tech 5% +$2,226
culture 3% +$158
weather 1% +$46
sports 0% +$270
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $594 23h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 27h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 28h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 31h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $107 34h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $184 35h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 37h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 2d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $243 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL No 19¢ $24 2d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 2d
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele BUY Yes 55¢ $382 2d
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele BUY Yes 55¢ $14 2d
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele BUY Yes 55¢ $26 2d
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele BUY Yes 55¢ $44 2d
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele BUY Yes 55¢ $66 2d
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele BUY Yes 55¢ $16 2d
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele BUY Yes 55¢ $3 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 81¢ $5 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 81¢ $218 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $210 4d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 9¢ $29 4d
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $214 5d
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $125 6d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? BUY No 90¢ $9 6d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? BUY No 90¢ $12 6d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? BUY No 90¢ $45 6d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? BUY No 90¢ $180 6d
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 BUY Yes 72¢ $60 6d
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 BUY Yes 72¢ $52 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -53.4% -57.8% 33% 33% -53.5%
≤30d 70 -7.8% -16.6% 64% 53% -7.7%
≤90d 194 +4.2% -5.8% 68% 55% -5.3%
all 452 +15.1% +4.2% 63% 47% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.2% 47% -2.6%
10% -5.8% 32% -12.0%
15% ← realistic here -14.9% 22% -20.5%
20% -23.2% 14% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71,154.13 · official $71,154.39 (match) · 3500 history records