Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:57:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x04bf…86b8
crypto · 1413 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,507 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$944 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$944
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses1025 / 679
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1704 / 1413
History coverage45d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day60.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1704 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$839
7 days−$820
14 days−$1,135
30 days−$1,041
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - November 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - December 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 6PM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 6PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 4AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$1 -348%
XRP Up or Down - December 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$173
weather 1% −$9
finance 0% −$7
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $16 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $22 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $9 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $13 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $22 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $22 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $29 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $38 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $32 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 519 -45.5% -50.7% 28% 16% -28.1%
≤30d 1240 -23.6% -30.8% 50% 16% -14.7%
≤90d 1704 -16.8% -24.7% 60% 14% -12.5%
all 1704 -16.8% -24.7% 60% 14% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover60.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 14% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 7% -20.8%
15% -38.5% 5% -28.5%
20% -44.5% 3% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records