Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04c0…0592 other 243 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$32
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$45
sports 21% −$18
politics 10% −$9
culture 9% −$11
crypto 5% +$40
economics 4% −$3
world 4% −$5
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 62 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 +0.0% -9.5% 1% 1% -9.6%
all 243 -0.0% -9.5% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×10.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage128d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $78 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $435 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $269 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $373 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $710 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $179 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $377 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $525 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $282 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $716 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $383 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $170 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $629 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $167 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $908 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $641 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $624 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $674 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $671 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $191 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $285 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $394 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $215 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $648 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $366 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $641 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $78 2m
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $78 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $78 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $78 8h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $78 9h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $78 11h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $78 12h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $78 13h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $66 13h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $13 15h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $79 16h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $79 18h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 19h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $79 21h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $79 23h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $79 25h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 27h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $79 33h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $79 34h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $79 40h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $79 42h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $79 43h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $79 46h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $79 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $79 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $79 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $80 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $80 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $80 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1284 history records