Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04c0…5d2e other 259 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$16
14 days−$30
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$44
sports 22% −$22
culture 8% −$9
politics 7% −$5
economics 7% −$7
crypto 6% −$6
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 259 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)259 / 259
History coverage138d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 259 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $148 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $143 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $239 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $217 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $614 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $327 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $375 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $253 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $260 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $126 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $692 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $660 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $473 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $294 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $699 −$2 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $327 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $348 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $469 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $117 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $354 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $639 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $752 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $124 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $409 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $435 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $273 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 1h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $7 2h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $53 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $53 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $53 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 13h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 14h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 16h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 20h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 31h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 35h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 36h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 39h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 40h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 47h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $7 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $7 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1482 history records