Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:33:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04c4…bfae world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$4
sports 18% −$12
other 7% $0
finance 1% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.3% -10.7% 22% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 28 -0.0% -9.5% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 38 -2.7% -12.0% 37% 0% -9.4%
all 44 +4.1% -5.8% 41% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 7% -9.8%
10% -14.8% 5% -18.4%
15% -23.1% 5% -26.3%
20% -30.6% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage520d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $55 −$2 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $35 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 -11%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $36 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $87 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $104 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $103 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $34 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $105 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $17 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $32 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $22 $0 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $133 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $29 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $20 $0 -1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $656 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $220 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $221 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $15 −$1 -3%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Georgia vs. South Carolina Mar 03 $17 −$17 -98%
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Mar 03 $4 +$3 +82%
Will Celtic vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw? Mar 03 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 04 $11 $0 +3%
Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Jan 15 $2 +$9 +376%
Will Chelsea vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Jan 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $38 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $38 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $5 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $17 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $24 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $25 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $11 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $11 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $25 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $36 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $35 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records