Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04c7…2d60 other 9 markets active 7h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$69 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$59
other 13% −$14
crypto 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -22.4% -29.8% 0% 0% -29.8%
≤30d 1 -22.4% -29.8% 0% 0% -29.8%
≤90d 1 -22.4% -29.8% 0% 0% -29.8%
all 1 -22.4% -29.8% 0% 0% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.8% 0% -29.8%
10% ← realistic here -36.5% 0% -36.5%
15% -42.6% 0% -42.6%
20% -48.3% 0% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 23¢ $79 $53 −$26 (-33%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $61 $29 −$31 (-52%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 58¢ 40¢ $28 $19 −$9 (-32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-10%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 49¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 27 $13 −$3 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $6 7h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $8 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 8h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 34¢ $4 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 10h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 35¢ $4 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $25 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 12h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 13h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 13h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $4 14h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 36¢ $2 14h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 35¢ $10 14h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $1 15h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $2 15h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $2 15h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 15h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 38¢ $4 15h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 38¢ $2 16h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 38¢ $7 16h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 39¢ $23 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $3 18h
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? SELL No 45¢ $10 25h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 56¢ $139 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 68¢ $31 25h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $2 26h
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 54¢ $13 26h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 55¢ $25 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.05 · official $129.10 (match) · 54 history records