Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04c7…c7a7 sports 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$866 (-6%) realized −$869 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%55W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$188est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$393
7 days−$789
14 days−$824
30 days−$934
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$584
other 8% −$347
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -8.1% -16.8% 50% 47% -25.1%
≤30d 112 -7.1% -15.9% 49% 47% -15.4%
≤90d 112 -7.1% -15.9% 49% 47% -15.4%
all 112 -7.1% -15.9% 49% 47% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 47% -15.4%
10% -24.0% 47% -23.5%
15% -31.3% 46% -30.9%
20% -38.0% 40% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$116 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$434
Realized−$869
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses55 / 57
Est. fees paid−$188
Open positions4
Markets (closed)112 / 116
History coverage18d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 43¢ 44¢ $258 $261 +$3 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Quentin Halys Matteo Arnaldi 48¢ 48¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Gabriel Diallo Benjamin Bonzi 44¢ 44¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Michael Zheng 39¢ 40¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) Jun 26 $119 −$118 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $186 −$186 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Aboian vs Casanova Jun 25 $110 −$109 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Jun 25 $112 +$88 +78%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc Jun 25 $69 −$69 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Haverlag/Lumsden vs Chong/Tjen Jun 25 $70 −$69 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 24 $85 +$45 +52%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng Jun 24 $82 −$81 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai Jun 24 $147 −$147 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana Jun 23 $110 −$110 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $105 +$95 +90%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze Jun 23 $191 +$109 +57%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $218 +$182 +84%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $248 +$124 +50%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 23 $96 −$11 -12%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 23 $232 −$232 -100%
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Iliyan Radulov Jun 22 $81 +$119 +147%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Rio Noguchi vs Luca Nardi Jun 22 $8 +$5 +60%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 22 $433 −$428 -99%
Set Handicap: Jacquet (-1.5) vs Dias (+1.5) Jun 22 $22 +$10 +47%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Moreno De Alboran vs Harold Mayo Jun 22 $20 +$12 +59%
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) Jun 22 $140 +$10 +7%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 22 $105 +$86 +82%
Set Handicap: Faria (-1.5) vs Grenier (+1.5) Jun 22 $176 +$124 +70%
Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Jun 22 $108 −$106 -99%
Spread: New York Liberty (-4.5) Jun 22 $140 +$160 +114%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Borna Gojo Jun 21 $115 −$114 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 21 $202 +$98 +48%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Sinja Kraus Jun 21 $43 +$40 +93%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 21 $144 +$112 +77%
Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Erjavec (+1.5) Jun 21 $131 −$129 -98%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 20 $111 +$139 +125%
Zverev vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 20 $166 −$166 -100%
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 20 $3 −$1 -19%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $170 −$168 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Fritz Jun 20 $134 −$132 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $116 +$184 +158%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $32 +$18 +54%
Set Handicap: Acosta (-1.5) vs Ribecai (+1.5) Jun 19 $64 −$63 -99%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $79 −$78 -99%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 18 $115 +$85 +74%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $169 −$169 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 18 $139 +$161 +115%
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 17 $134 +$166 +124%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $219 −$215 -98%
Set Handicap: Ambrogi (-1.5) vs Taverna (+1.5) Jun 17 $161 −$159 -99%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $191 +$209 +109%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 39¢ $1 6m
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 39¢ $2 7m
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 39¢ $2 7m
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 39¢ $7 10m
Wimbledon ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Quentin Halys BUY Matteo Arnaldi 48¢ $97 20m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $262 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Benjamin Bonzi 44¢ $67 1h
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) BUY PortlandFire 47¢ $119 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 62¢ $90 32h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 62¢ $16 32h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 62¢ $3 32h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 62¢ $2 32h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 62¢ $3 33h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 62¢ $3 33h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 62¢ $2 33h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 62¢ $56 34h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 62¢ $5 34h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 62¢ $6 37h
Set 1 Winner: Aboian vs Casanova BUY Casanova 63¢ $34 39h
Set 1 Winner: Aboian vs Casanova BUY Casanova 63¢ $28 39h
Set 1 Winner: Aboian vs Casanova BUY Casanova 63¢ $48 40h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc BUY Aliaksandra Sasnovich 45¢ $68 45h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc BUY Aliaksandra Sasnovich 45¢ $1 46h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson BUY Maria Timofeeva 56¢ $48 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson BUY Maria Timofeeva 56¢ $3 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson BUY Maria Timofeeva 56¢ $47 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson BUY Maria Timofeeva 56¢ $15 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Haverlag/Lumsden vs Chong/Tjen BUY Chong/Tjen 60¢ $70 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Laslo Djere 43¢ $6 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Laslo Djere 43¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.26 · official $434.26 (match) · 294 history records