Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
04 0x04c8…741e sports 31 markets active 5d ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$22 (+24%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%19W / 12L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$17
other 33% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -58.4% -62.4% 0% 0% -67.9%
≤30d 20 +11.7% +1.0% 50% 50% +2.9%
≤90d 31 +17.4% +6.2% 61% 61% +12.1%
all 31 +17.4% +6.2% 61% 61% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.2% 61% +12.1%
10% -3.9% 58% +1.3%
15% -13.2% 52% -8.5%
20% -21.7% 42% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses19 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage47d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -17%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 +$4 +70%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1 +$1 +83%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 26 $1 $0 +48%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $1 +$1 +70%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $1 +$1 +90%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $1 +$1 +138%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $6 +$3 +49%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 24 $1 +$1 +51%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 24 $7 −$2 -25%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a dr May 24 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Girona FC vs. Elche CF end in a draw? May 24 $1 +$3 +291%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $2 +$3 +151%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $5 +$3 +65%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $5 +$1 +15%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $11 +$3 +24%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $5 +$2 +38%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 04 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $5 +$4 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 16d
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 42¢ $1 19d
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Minnesota Twins 51¢ $1 19d
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals BUY New York Yankees 67¢ $1 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 54¢ $1 21d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 58¢ $1 22d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $1 22d
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $2 22d
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Houston Astros 100¢ $2 22d
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Houston Astros 41¢ $1 23d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P SELL Team Falcons 77¢ $5 23d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $5 23d
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $2 23d
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 43¢ $1 23d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P BUY Legacy 25¢ $1 23d
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 65¢ $1 23d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 45¢ $1 23d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs BUY MIBR 24¢ $1 23d
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 23d
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 23d
Will Girona FC vs. Elche CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 28d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a dr BUY Yes 28¢ $1 28d
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 28d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers SELL Pistons 100¢ $5 31d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina SELL Elina Svitolina 100¢ $6 32d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 39¢ $2 32d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 35¢ $2 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records