Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
04 0x04cb…20a5 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$77 (+15%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$31
sports 10% −$23
crypto 4% +$13
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +7.2% -3.0% 56% 56% -5.5%
≤30d 18 +7.2% -3.0% 56% 56% -5.5%
≤90d 18 +7.2% -3.0% 56% 56% -5.5%
all 18 +7.2% -3.0% 56% 56% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 56% -5.5%
10% -12.3% 56% -14.5%
15% -20.7% 56% -22.8%
20% -28.5% 50% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$25 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $32 −$30 -95%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $32 −$30 -95%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $32 +$36 +112%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $53 −$21 -40%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$11 +51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 +$23 +44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$13 +64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $42 +$28 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 +$12 +56%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $32 +$31 +97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$27 +128%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 +$19 +60%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 +$17 +164%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $32 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 48¢ $32 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $67 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $32 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $21 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $28 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $21 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $32 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $21 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $21 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $32 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $21 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records