Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:05:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
04 0x04cc…e09f other 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+3%) realized +$45 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%83W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$36
14 days+$38
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$39
sports 13% +$61
crypto 5% −$19
culture 2% −$7
weather 1% −$12
tech 0% $0
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +21.2% +9.7% 55% 55% -2.5%
≤30d 52 +19.1% +7.7% 52% 52% -5.1%
≤90d 140 -8.6% -17.3% 44% 44% -10.4%
all 168 +0.5% -9.1% 49% 49% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 49% -6.3%
10% -17.8% 46% -15.2%
15% -25.8% 39% -23.4%
20% -33.0% 29% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses83 / 85
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions21
Markets (closed)168 / 189
History coverage119d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+39%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 60¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+26%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+55%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 81¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+47%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+57%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 21¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 +$18 +69%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $8 +$5 +60%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 −$18 -77%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$17 +54%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$6 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$22 -86%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$13 -85%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 +$14 +64%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -87%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -50%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$10 +484%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 +$13 +262%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 +$15 +58%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$13 -63%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$11 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$23 +110%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -77%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $27 −$3 -12%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -63%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 +$18 +354%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $76 −$69 -91%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $10 $0 -2%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $10 +$9 +93%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $22 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 9h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $23 9h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 22h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $22 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $14 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $15 2d
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.37 · official $128.78 (match) · 457 history records