Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:37:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
04 0x04ce…278e sports 25 markets active 1d ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-2%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$87
14 days+$10
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$11
other 7% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -40.3% -46.0% 25% 25% -54.3%
≤30d 21 -15.4% -23.5% 38% 38% -14.5%
≤90d 25 -8.1% -16.8% 40% 40% -12.2%
all 25 -8.1% -16.8% 40% 40% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 40% -12.2%
10% -24.8% 36% -20.6%
15% -32.1% 36% -28.2%
20% -38.7% 36% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$33 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage78d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +250%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $51 +$53 +105%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $25 +$39 +152%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $51 +$105 +206%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $153 +$17 +11%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $51 +$44 +86%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $61 −$60 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playo Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoff Mar 28 $50 +$64 +128%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 27 $50 +$97 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes $5 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $10 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 33h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $20 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 47h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $20 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $25 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 15¢ $51 7d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 48¢ $51 7d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 29¢ $51 7d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 39¢ $25 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $51 8d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 50¢ $51 18d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 17¢ $10 19d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 36¢ $51 19d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $51 19d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Tundra Esports $27 19d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 12¢ $51 19d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Team Spirit 87¢ $73 19d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Team Spirit 86¢ $69 19d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 58¢ $51 19d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 63¢ $51 19d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playo BUY Team Yandex 54¢ $50 77d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playo BUY Team Yandex 34¢ $50 77d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof BUY Xtreme Gaming 44¢ $50 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records