Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

04 0x04cf…5224 finance 27 markets active 6h ago coverage 246d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,049 (+1%) realized +$1,421 · open +$628

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate78%14W / 4L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown74%max

Avg bet$6,716per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit74%portable

Net worth$42,968now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$34

7 days−$27

14 days−$25

30 days+$1,123

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-13.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-1.0%	-10.4%	50%	0%	-10.6%
≤30d	7	+1.2%	-8.5%	71%	0%	-8.1%
≤90d	11	+1.3%	-8.4%	82%	0%	-8.2%
all	18	-4.4%	-13.5%	78%	0%	-8.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-13.5%	0%	-8.7%
10% ← realistic here	-21.8%	0%	-17.4%
15%	-29.3%	0%	-25.4%
20%	-36.3%	0%	-32.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 41% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$10,046) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -10% → late +1% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$169 vs −$260 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage

Net worth$42,968

Realized+$1,421

Unrealized+$628

Win rate (resolved)78%

Wins / losses14 / 4

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions9

Markets (closed)18 / 27

History coverage246d

Avg bet$6,716

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown74%

Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 9 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June?	No	98¢	100¢	$18,400	$18,697	+$297 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?	No	99¢	100¢	$10,600	$10,694	+$94 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?	No	97¢	100¢	$6,200	$6,372	+$172 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	98¢	99¢	$2,300	$2,318	+$18 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?	No	98¢	99¢	$2,000	$2,019	+$19 (+1%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June?	No	99¢	100¢	$2,000	$2,016	+$16 (+1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June?	No	98¢	100¢	$400	$405	+$5 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June?	No	97¢	98¢	$340	$345	+$5 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	86¢	86¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	Jun 23	$1,304	−$34	-3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?	Jun 17	$1,001	+$7	+1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$100	+$7	+6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?	Jun 11	$300	−$4	-1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?	Jun 01	$20,022	+$292	+2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	May 29	$29,852	+$543	+2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	May 29	$20,013	+$312	+2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	May 01	$9,996	+$147	+2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	May 01	$9,983	+$142	+1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	May 01	$9,996	+$148	+2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	May 01	$19,993	+$267	+1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March?	Mar 01	$1,000	+$2	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February?	Feb 28	$999	+$14	+1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February?	Feb 26	$1,595	+$13	+1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Jan 26	$1,531	+$55	+4%
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	Nov 27	$10,046	+$415	+4%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?	Oct 23	$72	−$2	-3%
Will Trump pardon CZ by October 31?	Oct 23	$999	−$999	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	SELL No	92¢	$1,019	5h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	BUY No	90¢	$1,004	22h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June?	SELL No	99¢	$164	46h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	86¢	$100	3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	SELL No	80¢	$251	3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June?	BUY No	98¢	$200	4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June?	BUY No	98¢	$200	4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	BUY No	99¢	$1,000	4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	BUY No	98¢	$100	4d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?	BUY No	98¢	$2,002	4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	BUY No	98¢	$200	4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	BUY No	98¢	$1,001	5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?	SELL No	99¢	$1,008	5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	BUY No	96¢	$200	6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	BUY No	95¢	$100	6d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June?	BUY No	97¢	$100	7d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June?	BUY No	97¢	$100	8d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June?	BUY No	97¢	$200	8d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June?	BUY No	96¢	$100	8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?	BUY No	99¢	$200	8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?	BUY No	99¢	$10,005	8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?	BUY No	98¢	$1,001	8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?	BUY No	98¢	$200	9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?	BUY No	98¢	$200	9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?	BUY No	99¢	$100	9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?	SELL No	97¢	$296	11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?	BUY No	98¢	$300	12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$100	12d
Will Solana dip to $30 in June?	BUY No	99¢	$2,001	12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June?	BUY No	99¢	$3,002	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42,967.74 · official $42,964.54 (match) · 182 history records