Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
04 0x04d3…f194 other 111 markets active 3h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+5%) realized +$17 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate94%102W / 6L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$2
crypto 22% +$14
tech 19% +$2
economics 10% −$1
world 8% +$1
culture 7% +$1
politics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 10 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 33 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 3% -7.2%
all 108 +3.9% -6.0% 94% 12% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 12% -4.8%
10% -15.0% 8% -13.9%
15% -23.2% 6% -22.2%
20% -30.8% 6% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.01 per $1 lost it wins $3.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses102 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage219d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 97¢ 20¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 15? May 17 $2 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? May 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference? May 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? May 02 $4 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $4 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 24, 2026? Apr 29 $2 $0 +2%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 3? Apr 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Apr 17 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 07 $2 $0 +5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Apr 01 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $8 $0 +2%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Mar 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and Mar 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 23 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) Mar 23 $4 $0 +1%
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? Mar 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 10 $1 $0 +30%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 01 $2 $0 +0%
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28? Mar 01 $2 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Feb 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State Feb 26 $2 $0 +3%
Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podca Feb 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Februar Feb 19 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? Feb 19 $9 $0 +2%
Will BAILE INOLVIDABLE be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 12 $3 $0 +1%
Will Artemis II launch by February 7? Feb 12 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 Feb 04 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 3h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 5d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 9d
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $2 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $2 17d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 21d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $2 29d
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 32d
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 36d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 96¢ $2 39d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 98¢ $2 43d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2 47d
Will Powell say "Oil" during April press conference? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 50d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 100¢ $2 52d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 55d
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 57d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $2 59d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $2 60d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 62d
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 62d
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $2 63d
Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 66d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 68d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $2 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 72d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 97¢ $2 72d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 76d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.44 · official $4.44 (match) · 252 history records