trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 83% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 46% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 46% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 21 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 48% | 0% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.1% | 0% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -17.8% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -25.8% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -33.1% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $30 | $30 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 15 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 11 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 10 | $30 | +$1 | +2% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $30 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 05 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $63 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Jun 04 | $30 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jul 01 | $12 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? | May 22 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? | May 21 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? | May 19 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? | Mar 30 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 24 | $12 | $0 | -0% |