Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x04e3…124b
other · 155 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$8 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 143
Open positions0
Markets (closed)155 / 155
History coverage158d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 0 History 155 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 18 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $142 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $75 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 15 $93 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 13 $156 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 13 $3 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $80 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 12 $106 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February? Feb 12 $53 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 29% −$1
sports 26% −$2
politics 22% −$2
crypto 8% −$2
economics 5% $0
tech 4% −$1
culture 3% −$1
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 7h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $38 13d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $38 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 97¢ $38 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $39 25d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 93¢ $47 117d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 93¢ $47 117d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $45 117d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $45 117d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $49 117d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $49 117d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $45 117d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $45 117d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 98¢ $46 117d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 98¢ $46 117d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 117d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 117d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $47 117d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 117d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $50 117d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $50 117d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 95¢ $44 117d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 95¢ $44 117d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 97¢ $47 117d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 98¢ $47 117d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 92¢ $49 117d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 92¢ $49 117d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $47 117d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $47 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 155 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 454 history records