Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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04 0x04e3…69d1 crypto 456 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,445 (-7%) realized −$7,975 · open +$530
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%170W / 269L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day42.1pace
Fees−$488est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$6,546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$274
7 days+$922
14 days+$684
30 days−$1,082
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$1,727
sports 37% −$2,666
world 3% −$270
other 3% −$764
finance 1% +$604
tech 0% −$95
politics 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +9.2% -1.2% 42% 42% -1.3%
≤30d 126 -3.4% -12.6% 40% 38% -14.4%
≤90d 439 -6.4% -15.3% 39% 38% -14.6%
all 439 -6.4% -15.3% 39% 38% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 38% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 36% -22.8%
15% -30.8% 35% -30.2%
20% -37.6% 33% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$266 vs −$189 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$6,546
Realized−$7,975
Unrealized+$530
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses170 / 269
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$488
Open positions17
Markets (closed)439 / 456
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$226
Trades / day42.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 439 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 64¢ 100¢ $978 $1,524 +$546 (+56%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $476 $492 +$16 (+3%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 84¢ 96¢ $420 $478 +$58 (+14%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $455 $478 +$22 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $455 $474 +$20 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 79¢ 90¢ $395 $452 +$58 (+15%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? No 77¢ 90¢ $385 $452 +$67 (+17%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 97¢ 90¢ $485 $449 −$36 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 85¢ $452 $426 −$25 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 93¢ 84¢ $464 $421 −$43 (-9%)
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $280 $289 +$9 (+3%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $211 $225 +$14 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? No 25¢ 24¢ $125 $122 −$2 (-2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 46¢ $178 $112 −$66 (-37%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 91¢ $101 $103 +$2 (+2%)
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? Yes 31¢ 7¢ $142 $33 −$109 (-77%)
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $106 +$373 +353%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $105 +$229 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $105 +$208 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $105 +$189 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $105 +$218 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $207 +$185 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $97 +$174 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $105 +$198 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $209 +$379 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $105 +$189 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $208 +$260 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$158 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $105 +$237 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $206 +$145 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $105 +$228 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$125 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $158 +$454 +287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $105 +$212 +202%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $390 −$390 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $207 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 18h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $125 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $464 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $97 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $95 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $209 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $208 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,545.60 · official $6,545.65 (match) · 3500 history records