Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:49:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04e4…2f2f world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% $0
politics 18% −$1
other 13% +$1
finance 8% +$5
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -7.1% -16.0% 0% 0% -16.2%
≤30d 11 -2.4% -11.7% 45% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 13 -2.2% -11.5% 38% 0% -8.6%
all 37 -0.2% -9.7% 51% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.3% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage268d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 96¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $8 −$1 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $35 −$3 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $90 +$3 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $83 +$5 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $7 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $60 +$2 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $39 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $10 −$1 -9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 23 $1 $0 +10%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 13 $27 −$2 -7%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Oct 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marco Francis win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 27 $27 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $44 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $2 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $6 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $5 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $33 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $35 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $18 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $30 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $26 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $19 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $44 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $6 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $35 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.95 · official $43.91 (match) · 131 history records