Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x04e6…3914
sports · 197 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$17,197 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19,002 · open +$1,805
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14,659
Realized−$19,002
Unrealized+$1,805
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses86 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$7,232
Open positions26
Markets (closed)171 / 197
History coverage32d
Avg bet$2,919
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 26 History 171 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,859
7 days−$18,513
14 days−$16,402
30 days−$15,427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-2.5) United States 9¢ 78¢ $400 $3,489 +$3,089 (+772%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 23¢ 94¢ $741 $3,013 +$2,272 (+307%)
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Over 68¢ 50¢ $2,941 $2,150 −$791 (-27%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $1,026 $972 −$54 (-5%)
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $436 $751 +$315 (+72%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $699 $614 −$85 (-12%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $593 $590 −$4 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $467 $478 +$11 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 46¢ $460 $455 −$5 (-1%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $422 $411 −$11 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $275 $388 +$112 (+41%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $400 $367 −$33 (-8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $275 $270 −$6 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $167 $161 −$6 (-3%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $190 $142 −$48 (-25%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $121 $104 −$16 (-14%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $100 $90 −$11 (-11%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $72 $70 −$2 (-3%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $117 $58 −$58 (-50%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $64 $32 −$32 (-50%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $27 $19 −$7 (-27%)
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 3.5 Corners Over 71¢ 37¢ $34 $18 −$16 (-48%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $66 $11 −$55 (-83%)
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 62¢ 1¢ $812 $7 −$805 (-99%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada to win the second half? Jun 12 $525 +$417 +79%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $3,769 +$1,231 +33%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $3,951 +$492 +12%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $4,965 +$34 +1%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $1,672 −$1,117 -67%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $3,271 +$1,969 +60%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $652 +$125 +19%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,251 +$1,193 +95%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $3,465 +$279 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $578 +$354 +61%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $5,833 −$1,274 -22%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $3,048 −$3,039 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $2,447 +$1,278 +52%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe Jun 11 $857 +$332 +39%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $163 −$162 -99%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $897 −$888 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $219 +$114 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 Jun 11 $8,098 +$4,520 +56%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $3,652 +$1,759 +48%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $797 +$658 +83%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $736 +$292 +40%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $3,966 +$1,849 +47%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $265 +$231 +87%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $9,503 −$9,450 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $10,457 −$9,139 -87%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $5,703 −$4,446 -78%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 06 $10,501 −$9,249 -88%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $4,432 +$3,007 +68%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $2,910 +$1,395 +48%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $768 −$756 -98%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 06 $230 −$226 -99%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 05 $12,730 −$1,398 -11%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5) Jun 05 $163 +$430 +265%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $2,498 −$2,492 -100%
Makarska: Barbora Palicova vs Elina Avanesyan Jun 05 $559 −$548 -98%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Yasmine Kabbaj Jun 05 $549 −$537 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $10,076 +$3,988 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $567 +$2,766 +488%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 04 $810 −$810 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $3,447 +$2,108 +61%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 04 $9,533 +$2,609 +27%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana Jun 04 $11,255 −$931 -8%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $2,574 +$1,380 +54%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit Kopriva Jun 04 $580 +$230 +40%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $482 +$666 +138%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Jun 04 $7,744 +$6,667 +86%
Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Pedro Martinez Jun 03 $16,819 −$2,359 -14%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $9,896 −$2,111 -21%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 03 $9,089 +$8,142 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$19,882
other 2% +$2,690
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 68¢ $84 2m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 68¢ $820 2m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 68¢ $6 2m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 68¢ $934 2m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 68¢ $13 2m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 68¢ $431 2m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 68¢ $344 2m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 68¢ $94 2m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 68¢ $62 5m
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 63¢ $155 12m
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 71¢ $2 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 71¢ $32 1h
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $194 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $804 1h
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 1h
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $209 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $2 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 56¢ $28 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 56¢ $1,353 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 55¢ $1 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 55¢ $78 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 56¢ $143 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 56¢ $2 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 56¢ $4 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 56¢ $2 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 55¢ $72 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 56¢ $36 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 58¢ $238 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 57¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +4.9% -5.1% 67% 60% -26.3%
≤30d 169 -3.1% -12.3% 51% 49% -12.1%
≤90d 171 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 48% -12.7%
all 171 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 48% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 48% -12.7%
10% -21.6% 43% -21.1%
15% ← realistic here -29.2% 37% -28.7%
20% -36.1% 29% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,658.99 · official $14,695.70 (match) · 1226 history records