Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04ea…d556 sports 56 markets active 3h ago coverage 381d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$562 (+1%) realized +$562 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%28W / 28L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$717per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$208
7 days+$208
14 days+$208
30 days+$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$168
other 9% +$448
crypto 2% −$142
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.5% +2.7% 100% 100% +2.7%
≤30d 1 +13.5% +2.7% 100% 100% +2.7%
≤90d 1 +13.5% +2.7% 100% 100% +2.7%
all 56 -3.0% -12.2% 50% 48% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 48% -8.5%
10% -20.6% 43% -17.2%
15% -28.3% 39% -25.2%
20% -35.3% 32% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,016) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
19.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$739 vs −$722 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

381d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$562
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses28 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage381d
Avg bet$717
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,535 +$208 +14%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? Dec 16 $211 −$210 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November? Dec 16 $3,167 −$3,167 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in November? Dec 16 $2,516 −$2,516 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in November? Dec 15 $21 +$3 +12%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in October? Nov 19 $1,020 +$23 +2%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-11-06? Nov 07 $597 +$647 +108%
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Nov 05 $199 −$199 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 05 $581 +$215 +37%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 01 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 01 $100 +$32 +32%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Oct 31 $400 −$400 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $505 +$470 +93%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-10-31? Oct 31 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Oct 31 $293 +$259 +88%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $211 +$82 +39%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? Oct 29 $224 +$87 +39%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $502 −$502 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $402 +$417 +104%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Oct 25 $601 −$601 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 25 $502 +$307 +61%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in September? Oct 24 $3,550 +$5,591 +158%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Oct 23 $182 −$182 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September? Oct 21 $3,164 −$2,868 -91%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in September? Oct 17 $350 −$72 -20%
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 11 $187 −$187 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? Sep 11 $1,160 +$1,447 +125%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in August? Sep 11 $1,063 +$2,124 +200%
League of Legends: KT Rolster vs. BNK FEARX Sep 11 $13 −$13 -100%
League of Legends: T1 vs. Dplus KIA Sep 11 $9 +$3 +41%
League of Legends: Dplus KIA vs. BNK FEARX Sep 04 $209 −$209 -100%
League of Legends: T1 vs. Hanwha Life Esports Aug 28 $74 +$46 +61%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in August? Aug 27 $700 −$700 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August? Aug 26 $2,604 −$2,604 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in July? Aug 12 $3,762 +$5,346 +142%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July? Aug 12 $1,224 −$1,224 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in July? Aug 12 $1,158 −$1,158 -100%
League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. Anyone's Legend Aug 06 $382 −$382 -100%
League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming Aug 06 $190 +$190 +100%
League of Legends: DRX vs. Dplus KIA Jul 30 $329 +$370 +113%
League of Legends: T1 vs. Nongshim Red Force Jul 27 $785 +$124 +16%
League of Legends: T1 vs. Gen.G Jul 26 $200 +$466 +233%
Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament Jul 25 $30 +$40 +133%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in June? Jul 15 $2,282 −$2,282 -100%
Will Gen.G win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? Jul 15 $36 +$50 +138%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in June? Jul 15 $530 +$657 +124%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in June? Jun 29 $166 −$67 -40%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jun 27 $88 +$48 +55%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,743 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $741 8h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $371 12h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $423 12h
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 180d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 180d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 180d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 180d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 180d
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November? BUY Yes 40¢ $183 180d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 180d
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November? BUY Yes 40¢ $39 180d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 180d
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November? BUY Yes 40¢ $123 180d
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November? BUY Yes 40¢ $32 180d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 180d
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 180d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 180d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 180d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 180d
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November? BUY Yes 40¢ $13 180d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 180d
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 180d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 180d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 180d
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 180d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 180d
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 180d
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 180d
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 180d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1187 history records