Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:14:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
04 0x04ea…1092 crypto 444 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%238W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$11
14 days−$5
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$107
sports 3% +$5
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -21.9% -29.4% 33% 33% -18.7%
≤30d 9 +8.1% -2.2% 44% 44% -8.4%
≤90d 118 -6.1% -15.1% 55% 36% -18.5%
all 443 -3.6% -12.8% 54% 39% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 39% -11.6%
10% -21.1% 30% -20.0%
15% -28.7% 21% -27.7%
20% -35.7% 15% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses238 / 205
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)443 / 444
History coverage102d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 65¢ 66¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $26 −$22 -82%
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $29 −$3 -11%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $51 +$14 +28%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $11 +$5 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +39%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +276%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 07 $15 −$11 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 07 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 06 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 04 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 04 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 03 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 01 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 30 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 30 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 30 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 30 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 30 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 29 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 29 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 29 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 29 $19 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 25 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 25 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 25 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 25 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 25 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 24 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 24 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 24 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 19 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 19 $5 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 19 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 19 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 19 $9 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 19 $1 $0 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $26 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $26 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $29 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 3h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $65 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $51 5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 9d
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $11 10d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 15d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 15d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $4 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 15d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $3 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.84 · official $19.84 (match) · 1431 history records