Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04ec…580f other 442 markets active 3h ago coverage 180d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 180d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$23,557 (+9%) realized +$19,199 · open +$4,358
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate58%221W / 160L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$610per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$585est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$47,597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 180d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% +$5,170
other 25% −$678
world 24% +$5,265
politics 20% +$2,874
tech 3% +$361
culture 1% +$504
finance 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -35.3% -41.4% 37% 31% -32.4%
≤30d 101 -24.8% -31.9% 39% 34% -16.5%
≤90d 263 -14.4% -22.5% 54% 35% -14.3%
all 381 +0.1% -9.4% 58% 37% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 37% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 24% -15.0%
15% -26.0% 19% -23.2%
20% -33.2% 15% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$632) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$211 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$47,597
Realized+$19,199
Unrealized+$4,358
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses221 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$585
Open positions77
Markets (closed)381 / 442
History coverage180d ⚠
Avg bet$610
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 77 History 381 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 97¢ 99¢ $13,607 $13,865 +$258 (+2%)
Will Alec Pierce be traded? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,487 $2,508 +$20 (+1%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 10¢ $722 $2,026 +$1,305 (+181%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 39¢ 74¢ $1,050 $2,011 +$961 (+91%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $1,568 $1,766 +$198 (+13%)
Will Mike Evans be traded? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,651 $1,660 +$9 (+1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $1,272 $1,617 +$345 (+27%)
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season? No 79¢ 98¢ $1,218 $1,508 +$290 (+24%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 51¢ 58¢ $1,131 $1,278 +$146 (+13%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1,189 $1,222 +$32 (+3%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $1,070 $1,099 +$29 (+3%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $971 $936 −$35 (-4%)
Will Travis Etienne be traded? No 97¢ 99¢ $908 $929 +$21 (+2%)
Will D.K. Metcalf be traded? No 80¢ 98¢ $762 $924 +$163 (+21%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 44¢ 44¢ $936 $917 −$19 (-2%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 88¢ 93¢ $794 $834 +$40 (+5%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? No 83¢ 82¢ $799 $790 −$9 (-1%)
Will Jalen Carter be traded? No 74¢ 99¢ $556 $750 +$194 (+35%)
Will Kyler Murray be traded? No 99¢ 99¢ $720 $724 +$4 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $615 $569 −$46 (-7%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 91¢ 86¢ $573 $542 −$31 (-5%)
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $477 $490 +$13 (+3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $507 $473 −$34 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $501 $461 −$40 (-8%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $420 $452 +$33 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Green Bay Packers win the NFC North? Jun 20 $303 −$303 -100%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by August 31? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Omarion Hampton record the most rushing yards by a rookie running Jun 20 $158 −$167 -106%
Seahawks vs. Commanders Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Washington Commanders win the NFC East? Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Packers vs. Lions Jun 20 $66 −$77 -116%
Packers vs. Bears Jun 20 $219 −$219 -100%
Will Quinshon Judkins record the most rushing yards by a rookie runnin Jun 20 $129 −$56 -43%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Jun 20 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Kyle Monangai record the most rushing yards by a rookie running b Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Panthers vs. 49ers Jun 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $4-6B one day after launch? Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 20 $261 −$261 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West? Jun 20 $439 −$439 -100%
Bears vs. Eagles Jun 20 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $166 −$166 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $169 +$131 +78%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $102 +$98 +96%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $217 +$83 +38%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $120 +$80 +67%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 19 $32 +$28 +89%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 +$198 +194%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $88 −$88 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $53 −$52 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $148 +$52 +35%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$5 +52%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $110 +$100 +91%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $150 +$150 +100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $195 −$195 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $94 +$9 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $78 +$22 +29%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $90 +$110 +122%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $260 +$140 +54%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 +$64 +178%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $861 +$27 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $198 +$102 +52%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $40 −$15 -38%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $110 +$90 +82%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $128 2h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 2h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 74¢ $106 3h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 3h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 74¢ $35 3h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 75¢ $150 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 4h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 4h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 76¢ $84 4h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 76¢ $26 4h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 76¢ $27 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 5h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 77¢ $184 5h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 75¢ $112 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $420 8h
Will A'ja Wilson have the highest blocks per game in the WNBA 2026 reg BUY Yes 33¢ $54 10h
Will Caitlin Clark have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 BUY No 38¢ $109 10h
Will Alyssa Thomas have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $1 10h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $52 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47,596.87 · official $47,599.14 (match) · 3500 history records