Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
04 0x04ec…232a sports 210 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,828 (-1%) realized −$1,423 · open −$405
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate65%135W / 72L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$632per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$257est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$986now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$204
7 days−$498
14 days−$497
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,681
other 6% −$29
crypto 0% −$97
culture 0% −$11
world 0% −$91
politics 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -58.3% -62.2% 38% 0% -29.8%
≤30d 20 -8.6% -17.3% 65% 40% -10.4%
≤90d 122 -4.5% -13.6% 70% 16% -8.8%
all 207 -7.5% -16.3% 65% 21% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 21% -10.6%
10% -24.3% 14% -19.1%
15% -31.6% 11% -26.9%
20% -38.3% 10% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$109 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$986
Realized−$1,423
Unrealized−$405
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses135 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$257
Open positions3
Markets (closed)207 / 210
History coverage223d
Avg bet$632
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? No 88¢ 50¢ $932 $527 −$405 (-43%)
Will FaZe win a Tier 1 event in 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $259 $260 +$1 (+0%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,063 +$10 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $132 +$11 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $505 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $153 −$153 -100%
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? Jun 12 $18 −$14 -76%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 11 $152 −$152 -100%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $77 +$1 +1%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 04 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $152 +$90 +60%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $152 +$31 +20%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $152 +$121 +79%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $152 +$126 +83%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $118 −$118 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs OG (BO3) - BC Game Masters Cha May 22 $163 +$22 +14%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 22 $180 −$180 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $150 +$150 +100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5 May 18 $180 +$220 +122%
Will GamerLegion make it to the IEM Atlanta 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $0 $0 -52%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 16 $297 +$303 +102%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? May 14 $14 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $112 −$103 -91%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 2 Winner May 13 $188 −$50 -27%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs May 13 $188 +$9 +5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 13 $189 −$189 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $60 +$90 +150%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner May 11 $137 +$13 +10%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 11 $708 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $225 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner May 10 $180 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $170 +$5 +3%
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5) May 10 $35 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 10 $45 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner May 10 $48 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 223.5 May 10 $50 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 10 $94 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $446 +$46 +10%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 09 $160 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage May 09 $162 +$87 +54%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 May 08 $3 −$2 -63%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 08 $158 +$2 +1%
Will JD Vance say "Family" in Des Moines? May 07 $14 +$4 +27%
Will JD Vance say "Manufacturing" in Des Moines? May 07 $502 +$20 +4%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m? May 06 $25 −$12 -47%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5 May 06 $330 +$28 +8%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? May 05 $28 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? BUY No 79¢ $151 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 27h
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? BUY No 90¢ $135 39h
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? BUY No 90¢ $45 39h
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? BUY No 91¢ $128 39h
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? BUY No 91¢ $8 39h
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? BUY No 92¢ $124 42h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 21¢ $51 44h
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? SELL No 93¢ $93 2d
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? BUY No 92¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $153 2d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Knicks 99¢ $1,063 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 78¢ $139 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 65¢ $508 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $505 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 73¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 72¢ $129 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 73¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 73¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 72¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 42¢ $153 3d
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? SELL No 9¢ $4 4d
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? BUY No 37¢ $18 4d
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? SELL No 93¢ $95 4d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $152 6d
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC SELL Fakers 78¢ $78 7d
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC BUY Fakers 77¢ $77 7d
Will FaZe win a Tier 1 event in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 7d
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? BUY No 90¢ $502 8d
Will FaZe win a Tier 1 event in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $16 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $985.62 · official $985.62 (match) · 977 history records