Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:49:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
04 0x04ee…bc1a sports 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$446 (+7%) realized +$467 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%70W / 62L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$450
7 days+$426
14 days+$865
30 days+$906
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$233
sports 39% +$612
crypto 4% −$99
finance 3% −$157
politics 2% −$63
world 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -5.3% -14.3% 48% 48% +9.7%
≤30d 78 +20.1% +8.7% 59% 58% +9.8%
≤90d 132 +1.9% -7.8% 53% 51% -0.1%
all 132 +1.9% -7.8% 53% 51% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 51% -0.1%
10% -16.6% 48% -9.7%
15% -24.7% 44% -18.4%
20% -32.1% 35% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$28 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$1,163
Realized+$467
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses70 / 62
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions14
Markets (closed)132 / 146
History coverage68d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $170 $209 +$39 (+23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $96 $108 +$12 (+12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $101 $104 +$2 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $152 $103 −$49 (-32%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $104 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 34¢ $68 $92 +$25 (+36%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $83 $72 −$12 (-14%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $83 $70 −$13 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $55 $57 +$1 (+3%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $72 $51 −$21 (-29%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 36¢ 20¢ $35 $19 −$16 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $246 +$118 +48%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $186 +$57 +30%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $181 +$65 +36%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $66 +$64 +97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$98 +97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $138 −$37 -27%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $187 +$86 +46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $46 −$45 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $61 +$41 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $65 +$45 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $56 +$33 +59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$25 +97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $51 +$29 +57%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 $0 -2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$28 -91%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $36 −$21 -60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$8 -38%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 17 $36 −$2 -5%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $58 +$58 +100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$25 +98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $15 −$9 -60%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$38 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$30 +59%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $35 −$35 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $36 +$49 +138%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$46 +114%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 +$85 +152%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$39 -64%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $12 +$23 +189%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $46 +$32 +71%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$22 +86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $35 +$19 +54%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $35 +$17 +49%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $11 +$3 +24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $80 −$79 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $68 +$19 +28%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $45 −$44 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$89 +249%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 +$79 +220%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 59m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $364 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $246 1h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $243 2h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $186 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 73¢ $181 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 26h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 26h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 26h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $18 26h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $66 27h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $198 29h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $101 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 52¢ $101 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 30h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 31h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 31h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 31h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 31h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,163.03 · official $1,162.79 (match) · 365 history records