Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04f1…03e7 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% $0
politics 24% −$1
other 15% +$1
crypto 8% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.3%
all 47 -0.8% -10.2% 28% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage266d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 29¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $13 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $73 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $36 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 11 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 09 $23 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 08 $2 $0 -3%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $2 +$1 +41%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $1 $0 -22%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $1 $0 -27%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $3 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 01 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $44 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $32 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $30 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $13 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $23 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $15 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $13 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $23 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $24 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $41 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 87¢ $43 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $42 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $42 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records