Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

04
0x04f1…8438
crypto · 373 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$506 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$514 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$95
Realized+$514
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses196 / 176
Open positions1
Markets (closed)372 / 373
History coverage1d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day2400.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 372 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$514
7 days+$514
14 days+$514
30 days+$514
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 69¢ 68¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 40¢ 32¢ $37 $29 −$8 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $56 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $74 −$13 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $23 +$9 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $122 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $77 −$15 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$15 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $186 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $43 +$17 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$16 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $103 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $180 −$17 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $78 −$8 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $90 +$18 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $44 −$13 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $71 −$10 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $100 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $96 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $53 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $107 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $79 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $108 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $86 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $122 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $67 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $135 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $102 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $55 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $39 −$7 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $174 +$30 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $62 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $33 −$3 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$506
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $23 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $14 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $22 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $13 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $14 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $17 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 372 -2.3% -11.6% 53% 35% -7.5%
≤30d 372 -2.3% -11.6% 53% 35% -7.5%
≤90d 372 -2.3% -11.6% 53% 35% -7.5%
all 372 -2.3% -11.6% 53% 35% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2400.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 35% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 18% -16.3%
15% -27.8% 13% -24.4%
20% -34.9% 9% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.49 · official $95.04 (match) · 3500 history records