Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

04 0x04f3…505a politics 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 249d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$92per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 249d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-8.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	2	+1.1%	-8.5%	50%	0%	-9.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.5%	0%	-9.0%
10%	-17.3%	0%	-17.7%
15%	-25.3%	0%	-25.7%
20%	-32.6%	0%	-33.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$0 · ×8.51 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.51 per $1 lost it wins $8.51

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage

Net worth$392

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage249d

Avg bet$92

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	99¢	99¢	$198	$198	−$0 (-0%)
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	99¢	99¢	$179	$178	−$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	90¢	90¢	$15	$15	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?	Dec 19	$18	$0	+2%
Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31?	Oct 15	$48	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$198	1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$179	1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY No	90¢	$15	184d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?	SELL No	99¢	$19	184d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?	BUY No	97¢	$18	221d
Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31?	SELL No	100¢	$48	249d
Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31?	BUY No	100¢	$48	249d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.65 · official $391.65 (match) · 7 history records