Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
04 0x04f6…9ba1 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$54 (+1%) realized +$75 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate76%25W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$363
7 days+$116
14 days+$102
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$406
other 34% −$285
world 3% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -4.0% -13.2% 77% 61% -7.3%
≤30d 33 -5.9% -14.9% 76% 61% -7.6%
≤90d 33 -5.9% -14.9% 76% 61% -7.6%
all 33 -5.9% -14.9% 76% 61% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 61% -7.6%
10% -23.0% 30% -16.4%
15% -30.5% 9% -24.5%
20% -37.3% 6% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$86 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$75
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses25 / 8
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage7d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots Yes 56¢ 32¢ $50 $29 −$21 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $265 +$75 +28%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $107 +$9 +9%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 17 $240 +$68 +28%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $380 +$59 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $321 +$59 +18%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $155 +$43 +28%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $161 −$39 -24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $277 +$40 +14%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $228 +$49 +22%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $201 +$24 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $178 +$26 +15%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $138 +$39 +28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $499 −$496 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $502 +$135 +27%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $33 −$31 -92%
Exact Score: Botafogo FC 0 - 1 Operário Ferroviário EC? Jun 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $178 +$20 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $183 +$21 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $201 +$37 +18%
Exact Score: São Bernardo FC 1 - 0 SC Recife? Jun 14 $29 +$2 +8%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $33 −$33 -99%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $33 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $30 +$3 +8%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $55 −$55 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $34 +$17 +51%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $49 +$5 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $39 +$10 +26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $22 −$2 -7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $53 +$19 +36%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $49 +$3 +7%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $20 +$6 +28%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $340 42m
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 74¢ $63 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 78¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 79¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 89¢ $116 2h
Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots BUY Yes 56¢ $51 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $107 3h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce SELL Fenerbahce 100¢ $307 3h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 76¢ $100 5h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 78¢ $140 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $439 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $380 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $379 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $140 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $181 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $199 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $122 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $155 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $161 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $316 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 87¢ $277 47h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? SELL No 99¢ $277 47h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 81¢ $228 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 89¢ $225 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $101 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 77¢ $101 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $204 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $178 2d
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas SELL Fenerbahce 100¢ $178 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $499 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.02 · official $29.02 (match) · 74 history records