Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:26:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04fa…4f25 politics 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%4W / 21L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$709per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% −$11
other 40% −$176
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 25 -12.0% -20.4% 16% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 0% -10.5%
10% -28.0% 0% -19.0%
15% -35.0% 0% -26.9%
20% -41.3% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,311) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses4 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage619d
Avg bet$709
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $298 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $277 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-05-11? Apr 16 $54 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Paul Lim win the PDC World Darts Championship? Dec 22 $285 −$142 -50%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 21 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ed Flynn win the 2025 Boston mayoral election? Nov 24 $109 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-28? Oct 26 $54 −$27 -50%
Will Marian Vanghelie be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 28 $9 $0 -0%
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Sep 28 $54 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Devils vs. Blue Jackets May 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $10 $0 -0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Mar 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? Mar 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will Everton win on 2024-12-07? Mar 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Oct 12 $2,311 −$2 -0%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? Oct 12 $2,311 −$2 -0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Oct 12 $2,311 −$2 -0%
Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Oct 12 $2,355 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $2,410 −$2 -0%
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Oct 12 $2,356 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $2,411 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $300 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $298 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $298 67d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2 67d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 107d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $160 107d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $277 127d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $282 127d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $283 150d
Will Paul Lim win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $26 183d
Will Paul Lim win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $36 183d
Will Paul Lim win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $20 183d
Will Paul Lim win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $96 183d
Will Paul Lim win the PDC World Darts Championship? SELL No 100¢ $107 183d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $109 184d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $109 210d
Will Ed Flynn win the 2025 Boston mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $109 239d
Will Marian Vanghelie be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 100¢ $9 268d
Will Marian Vanghelie be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 100¢ $9 268d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 331d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 331d
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $9 407d
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $9 407d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $10 463d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $10 463d
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? BUY No 98¢ $3 521d
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $2 560d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 42¢ $0 598d
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? SELL No 100¢ $2,309 619d
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $2,311 619d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.75 · official $299.75 (match) · 169 history records