Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
04 0x04fc…c46d crypto 505 markets active 2d ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$269 (-7%) realized −$269 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%211W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$146
14 days−$135
30 days−$431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$465
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -7.3% -16.2% 47% 47% -25.8%
≤30d 477 -10.5% -19.1% 42% 41% -20.1%
≤90d 505 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 41% -20.3%
all 505 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 41% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 41% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 39% -28.0%
15% -34.7% 35% -34.9%
20% -41.1% 31% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$269
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses211 / 294
Open positions0
Markets (closed)505 / 505
History coverage29d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 505 Trades
no open positions (261 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$6 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$14 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$8 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$7 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$17 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$7 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$9 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$8 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $8 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1242 history records