trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? | Yes | 37¢ | 100¢ | $4 | $11 | +$7 (+170%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? | No | 45¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? | Jun 11 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10? | Jun 11 | $6 | +$3 | +51% |
| Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 8? | Jun 09 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? | Jun 08 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 7? | Jun 08 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 7? | Jun 08 | $3 | +$4 | +131% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6? | Jun 07 | $9 | +$5 | +56% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5? | Jun 05 | $6 | +$7 | +112% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 2? | Jun 03 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June | Jun 03 | $9 | +$4 | +45% |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 31? | Jun 01 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 30? | Jun 01 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 30? | Jun 01 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 28? | May 29 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? | May 29 | $8 | +$3 | +40% |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May | May 27 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma | May 27 | $5 | +$3 | +51% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on No | Nov 20 | $11 | +$6 | +52% |
| Texas vs. Georgia | Nov 18 | $6 | +$3 | +54% |
| Hawks vs. Jazz | Nov 15 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Jets vs. Ducks | Nov 13 | $11 | +$14 | +127% |
| Wake Forest vs. Virginia | Nov 09 | $3 | +$6 | +203% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -6.2% | -15.2% | 50% | 50% | -19.0% |
| ≤30d | 17 | -30.2% | -36.9% | 41% | 41% | -29.6% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -30.2% | -36.9% | 41% | 41% | -29.6% |
| all | 22 | -8.1% | -16.9% | 50% | 50% | -8.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.9% | 50% | -8.2% |
| 10% | -24.8% | 50% | -17.0% |
| 15% | -32.1% | 50% | -25.0% |
| 20% | -38.7% | 41% | -32.4% |