Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
04 0x04fe…c160 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 402d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$129
14 days+$129
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$131
crypto 7% +$4
politics 4% +$2
world 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.4% -11.7% 67% 50% +0.0%
≤30d 6 -2.4% -11.7% 67% 50% +0.0%
≤90d 6 -2.4% -11.7% 67% 50% +0.0%
all 12 +0.8% -8.8% 83% 25% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 25% -0.8%
10% -17.5% 25% -10.3%
15% -25.5% 25% -19.0%
20% -32.8% 8% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×14.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×70.02 per $1 lost it wins $70.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

402d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage402d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,202 +$121 +10%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $67 +$3 +5%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 19 $31 +$1 +4%
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? Jun 14 $31 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 30 $29 +$2 +6%
Ethereum above $2,500 on May 27? May 26 $27 +$2 +7%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 18 $27 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records