Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0502…bd26 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-6%) realized −$6 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$923now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$130
economics 41% +$34
crypto 12% +$11
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.6% -13.7% 20% 20% -10.5%
≤30d 5 -4.6% -13.7% 20% 20% -10.5%
≤90d 5 -4.6% -13.7% 20% 20% -10.5%
all 5 -4.6% -13.7% 20% 20% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 20% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 20% -19.1%
15% -29.5% 20% -26.9%
20% -36.4% 20% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$26 · ×3.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$923
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)5 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $100 $149 +$49 (+49%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $104 +$96 +93%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $102 −$5 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $102 −$5 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $53 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $96 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $97 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $97 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 BUY Yes 5¢ $105 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 4¢ $105 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 3¢ $105 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $105 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 17¢ $104 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $922.89 · official $922.94 (match) · 27 history records