Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0503…db3d other 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 719d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9,611 (-8%) realized −$8,766 · open −$845
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate53%94W / 85L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$625per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$2,821now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$1,463
other 40% −$7,942
politics 6% +$58
sports 6% −$273
economics 0% −$3
world 0% +$14
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.4% -7.3% 50% 8% -9.1%
≤30d 29 -19.1% -26.8% 59% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 94 -14.6% -22.7% 67% 10% -11.5%
all 179 -16.4% -24.3% 53% 13% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 13% -16.6%
10% -31.6% 10% -24.5%
15% -38.2% 8% -31.8%
20% -44.2% 7% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$161 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

719d coverage
Net worth$2,821
Realized−$8,766
Unrealized−$845
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses94 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)179 / 187
History coverage719d
Avg bet$625
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,354 $1,354 +$1 (+0%)
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 100¢ 100¢ $823 $824 +$1 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 12¢ $1,166 $343 −$823 (-71%)
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Makina FDV above $80M one day after launch? Yes 49¢ 24¢ $49 $24 −$24 (-50%)
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 16 $10,102 +$48 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $117 +$3 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $76 +$4 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$7 +223%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $683 +$2 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $357 −$2 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $337 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 $0 -1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $104 $0 +0%
Tea FDV above $200M one day after launch Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Tea FDV above $300M one day after launch Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Tea FDV above $150M one day after launch Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Tea FDV above $100M one day after launch Jun 04 $176 +$22 +12%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $30 −$30 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $537 −$7 -1%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? May 30 $8 $0 +0%
XMAQUINA FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 29 $349 +$1 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot May 28 $98 +$2 +2%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $2,598 +$3 +0%
Over $150M committed to the Printr public sale? May 26 $200 $0 +0%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? May 26 $199 $0 +0%
Over $200M committed to the Printr public sale? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Nexus FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Nexus FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 05 $4 −$4 -99%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Space FDV above $5M one day after launch? Apr 30 $1,809 −$1,804 -100%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 30 $8 −$7 -88%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $49 $0 +1%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $198 +$2 +1%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $1,986 +$32 +2%
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $198 +$2 +1%
Over $250M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $1,982 +$12 +1%
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 30 $404 $0 +0%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $540 +$82 +15%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste Apr 29 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 21-27? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Fluent FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 26 $298 +$1 +0%
Fluent FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 26 $494 +$1 +0%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jaqueline Cristian Apr 25 $279 +$21 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? Apr 23 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 17 $7,015 +$7 +0%
Over $14M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 13 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 1h
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 1h
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $255 1h
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 1h
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 1h
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $291 1h
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $232 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $674 2d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $26 2d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $170 2d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1,497 2d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $893 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $119 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1,490 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $29 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,820.90 · official $2,820.90 (match) · 1384 history records