Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
05 0x0503…4155 crypto 574 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 130d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$277 (+3%) realized +$370 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%280W / 287L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$42
14 days+$42
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$164
other 23% +$641
tech 23% −$143
sports 2% +$28
finance 1% −$1
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +28.3% +16.0% 59% 53% -3.1%
≤30d 19 +14.8% +3.8% 53% 47% -6.3%
≤90d 272 -48.1% -53.0% 22% 17% -18.1%
all 567 -9.1% -17.8% 49% 41% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 41% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 31% -14.6%
15% -32.8% 22% -22.9%
20% -39.4% 14% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$370
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses280 / 287
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)567 / 574
History coverage131d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 567 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 26? Up 89¢ 68¢ $89 $68 −$21 (-24%)
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 26? Up 62¢ 65¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+5%)
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 26? Up 63¢ 57¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-9%)
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 26? Up 66¢ 72¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? Down 42¢ 49¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+17%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $80 $6 −$74 (-92%)
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 26? Down 41¢ 40¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $165 −$2 -1%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$3 +122%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $42 +$38 +89%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$2 +55%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $14 +$14 +101%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$3 +178%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $85 −$45 -53%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $44 +$22 +50%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $66 −$13 -19%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $23 +$17 +74%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $29 +$26 +92%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $14 +$15 +104%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $33 +$1 +3%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $35 −$5 -13%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 07 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 24 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 24 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 20 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 20 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 20 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 20 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 20 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 20 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 20 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 20 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 20 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 20 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 20 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 20 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 20 $2 $0 +6%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $108 +$92 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Up 64¢ $94 23m
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 89¢ $89 57m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 41¢ $41 58m
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 69¢ $17 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 69¢ $17 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 69¢ $17 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 69¢ $17 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 69¢ $17 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 68¢ $17 1h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 62¢ $24 1h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 62¢ $4 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 47¢ $9 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 41¢ $6 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 62¢ $8 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 63¢ $13 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 58¢ $46 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 58¢ $12 1h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Up 66¢ $56 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Up 60¢ $59 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Up 69¢ $68 1h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 56¢ $49 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 56¢ $57 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 61¢ $62 1h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 66¢ $13 2h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 69¢ $28 19h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 46¢ $2 19h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 48¢ $1 19h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 35¢ $29 20h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 36¢ $29 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.67 · official $150.67 (match) · 3500 history records