Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x050e…d92f sports 317 markets active 0h ago coverage 167d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,600 (+3%) realized +$1,626 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate63%197W / 117L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$529est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 167d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$636
other 3% +$73
world 0% −$60
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -29.1% -35.9% 48% 39% -18.7%
≤30d 178 -9.1% -17.8% 56% 45% -11.4%
≤90d 298 -5.4% -14.4% 63% 39% -9.1%
all 314 -4.5% -13.6% 63% 39% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 39% -9.1%
10% -21.9% 27% -17.8%
15% -29.4% 20% -25.8%
20% -36.4% 15% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$77 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$1,626
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses197 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$529
Open positions3
Markets (closed)314 / 317
History coverage167d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Group A Millennium Esports 86¢ 76¢ $131 $116 −$15 (-11%)
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner Millennium Esports 63¢ 56¢ $75 $67 −$8 (-11%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 52¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $100 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $180 +$34 +19%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 19 $51 +$29 +58%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $32 −$32 -98%
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Jun 18 $60 +$5 +9%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $51 +$58 +114%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $74 +$20 +27%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 −$24 -23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$3 -5%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $121 +$9 +7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $303 +$119 +39%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $580 +$70 +12%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $101 +$13 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$37 +73%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $65 +$35 +54%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North Americ Jun 10 $151 −$67 -44%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $201 −$103 -51%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $121 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $185 −$25 -14%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $152 +$134 +88%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 09 $71 −$14 -20%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $100 +$4 +4%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Geekay Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$111 +109%
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs XI Esport (+1.5) Jun 08 $100 −$14 -14%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1,463 −$610 -42%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Sta Jun 08 $487 −$95 -19%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Leagu Jun 08 $91 +$70 +77%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rock LFO vs Man eSports LFO (BO1) - Asia Pacific Le Jun 08 $111 +$68 +61%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 08 $401 +$46 +12%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro Leag Jun 08 $50 −$12 -23%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $101 +$72 +71%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $51 −$24 -47%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 06 $1,419 −$260 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 47¢ $9 0m
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 53¢ $5 2m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $3 2m
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 47¢ $2 2m
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 47¢ $2 2m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $3 2m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $7 2m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $16 3m
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou BUY Millennium Esports 82¢ $8 3m
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou BUY Millennium Esports 82¢ $2 3m
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou BUY Millennium Esports 82¢ $15 3m
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 77¢ $8 3m
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 72¢ $7 4m
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 72¢ $7 4m
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 72¢ $7 4m
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 60¢ $6 7m
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 69¢ $3 8m
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 69¢ $3 8m
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 69¢ $14 8m
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou BUY Millennium Esports 86¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou BUY Millennium Esports 86¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou BUY Millennium Esports 86¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou BUY Millennium Esports 86¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou BUY Millennium Esports 86¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou BUY Millennium Esports 87¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou BUY Millennium Esports 87¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou BUY Millennium Esports 86¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A SELL eSuba 100¢ $114 1h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner SELL eSuba 100¢ $215 1h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner BUY eSuba 80¢ $80 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.58 · official $234.28 · 1766 history records