Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:48:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x050f…5e33 sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$170 (-7%) realized −$170 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%23W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$219
7 days+$201
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$103
other 20% +$53
crypto 3% −$25
politics 1% −$8
culture 1% +$13
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +131.0% +109.0% 53% 53% +5.0%
≤30d 18 +107.3% +87.6% 56% 56% -13.3%
≤90d 30 +53.5% +38.9% 47% 43% -20.0%
all 50 +24.7% +12.8% 46% 44% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.8% 44% -16.3%
10% +2.0% 36% -24.3%
15% -7.8% 30% -31.6%
20% -16.9% 20% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$24 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses23 / 27
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage153d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $218 +$106 +49%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $167 +$51 +31%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $143 +$25 +17%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $105 +$38 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $35 −$4 -10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $65 −$31 -47%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $38 −$10 -27%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $14 −$14 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $27 +$19 +70%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$4 +63%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$8 +38%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 −$1 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$9 -58%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $293 −$291 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $231 +$63 +27%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $165 +$65 +40%
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers Apr 29 $50 −$49 -99%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Quentin Halys vs Jaime Faria Apr 20 $29 −$28 -99%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Nuria Brancaccio Apr 20 $90 −$20 -22%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 20 $35 +$15 +43%
Gwangju: Clement Chidekh vs Coleman Wong Apr 20 $70 −$35 -50%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros Apr 19 $93 +$7 +8%
Kings vs. Avalanche Apr 19 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $79 +$14 +17%
Sporting CP vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $15 +$13 +89%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Apr 19 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 01 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $92 +$66 +72%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $20 +$28 +141%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $20 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 01 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Mar 01 $9 +$2 +27%
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh Feb 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 31, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 01 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 01 $4 +$2 +45%
Solana Up or Down - January 31, 7PM ET Feb 01 $9 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 7AM ET Jan 22 $3 −$2 -63%
Will J.D. Vance say "Biden Administration" 4+ times in Ohio on Thursda Jan 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 22 $13 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 5AM ET Jan 22 $5 +$7 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1PM ET Jan 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12PM ET Jan 21 $13 +$2 +18%
Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Khamenei" during WEF Address on January 21 Jan 21 $8 +$5 +57%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" or "Iran" 4+ times during WEF Address on Janu Jan 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $322 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $218 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $167 23h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $168 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $143 28h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $105 45h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 53¢ $31 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 48¢ $32 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $35 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 30¢ $2 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 30¢ $3 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 30¢ $7 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 30¢ $3 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 30¢ $15 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 30¢ $6 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over $0 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $0 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $46 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $10 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $47 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL 99¢ $10 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $27 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 47¢ $27 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $27 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over $0 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $19 6d
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals SELL Yes 41¢ $19 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.74 · official $49.52 (match) · 106 history records