Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0512…17f2 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$329 (-12%) realized −$329 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%18W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$78
other 38% −$248
economics 9% +$1
finance 4% +$1
politics 4% $0
tech 4% +$1
weather 4% $0
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 5 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 16 -11.8% -20.2% 88% 0% -15.4%
all 21 -13.3% -21.6% 86% 0% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 0% -20.4%
10% -29.1% 0% -28.0%
15% -35.9% 0% -35.0%
20% -42.2% 0% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$121 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$329
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses18 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage108d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $101 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19? May 19 $9 −$8 -94%
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 16? May 17 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 12 $107 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 10 $104 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 04 $104 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 04 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 04 $103 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $252 −$252 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 20 $250 +$1 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $238 +$13 +5%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 12 $235 +$3 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 07 $229 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 99¢ $101 8d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $100 8d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $100 19d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $100 29d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19? BUY Yes $9 32d
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 100¢ $100 34d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $108 39d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $107 41d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $104 43d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 47d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $104 62d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 99¢ $104 76d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $103 87d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $102 89d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $252 91d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $250 96d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 95¢ $238 99d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? BUY No 99¢ $235 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 97¢ $229 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.95 · official $102.95 (match) · 42 history records