trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -3.4% | -12.6% | 50% | 50% | -6.6% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +13.9% | +3.0% | 83% | 33% | +10.4% |
| all | 14 | -22.2% | -29.6% | 64% | 14% | +2.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -29.6% | 14% | +2.9% |
| 10% | -36.3% | 14% | -6.9% |
| 15% | -42.5% | 14% | -15.9% |
| 20% | -48.1% | 14% | -24.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 68¢ | 68¢ | $396 | $394 | −$3 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights | Jun 10 | $177 | +$165 | +93% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 28 | $157 | −$154 | -98% |
| Golden Knights vs. Utah | Apr 28 | $164 | +$147 | +90% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Apr 27 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 | Apr 27 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Apr 27 | $202 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? | Mar 03 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Mar 03 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? | Feb 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | Feb 02 | $12 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Microsoft reach $645 in January? | Feb 02 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Jan 29 | $26 | −$26 | -100% |
| US bank failure by January 31? | Jan 21 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Will 'Lilo & Stitch' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2 | Jan 06 | $23 | $0 | +0% |