Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:55:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

05
0x0513…5219
other · 69 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,288 -45%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,336 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$172
Realized−$2,336
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses17 / 45
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)62 / 69
History coverage258d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 7 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,322
7 days−$2,311
14 days−$2,311
30 days−$2,311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 55¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 69¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $120 +$11 +9%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -89%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $147 +$12 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $176 +$35 +20%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $39 −$31 -80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $139 −$106 -76%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $418 +$100 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Protest" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Exper Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 2? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during W Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$26 +1456%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,235 −$2,252 -70%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 -8%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $15 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $70 −$2 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $76 −$3 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 13 $74 −$1 -2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 13 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 13 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -87%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$12 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Feb 13 $2 +$3 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Feb 13 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Feb 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 13 $6 +$7 +121%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 13 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 13 $4 +$2 +40%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? Feb 13 $3 −$2 -69%
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Feb 13 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 08 $4 +$2 +49%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 31 $1 $0 +28%
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? Jan 31 $2 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 90% −$2,228
sports 6% −$71
crypto 3% −$22
politics 0% −$8
world 0% −$1
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $120 2h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2h
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? SELL Yes 100¢ $160 2h
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 92¢ $147 13h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $71 13h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $210 13h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $142 14h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 14h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 14h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 14¢ $33 14h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 15h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 16h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $139 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 92¢ $202 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 78¢ $101 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 78¢ $150 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +7.9% -2.4% 17% 11% -52.7%
≤30d 35 +7.9% -2.4% 17% 11% -52.7%
≤90d 35 +7.9% -2.4% 17% 11% -52.7%
all 62 -1.8% -11.2% 27% 23% -52.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 23% -52.5%
10% -19.7% 19% -57.1%
15% -27.4% 13% -61.2%
20% -34.6% 10% -65.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.54 · official $171.54 (match) · 165 history records