Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x0517…933a other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 406d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+6%) realized +$113 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%31W / 25L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$60
14 days−$117
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$78
sports 20% −$104
world 8% +$29
politics 5% +$132
crypto 5% −$18
culture 2% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +13.6% +2.7% 83% 67% -32.7%
≤30d 18 -7.2% -16.1% 61% 44% -32.1%
≤90d 34 -10.7% -19.2% 56% 44% -10.3%
all 56 +1.0% -8.6% 55% 48% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 48% -4.2%
10% -17.3% 41% -13.4%
15% -25.3% 36% -21.8%
20% -32.6% 32% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$22 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$113
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses31 / 25
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage406d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 87¢ 58¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$82 -80%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $80 +$4 +5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 07 $10 −$3 -28%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $10 +$3 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $49 −$37 -76%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $21 +$15 +70%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 21 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 20 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 20 $15 −$11 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC end in a draw? May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff May 13 $82 −$80 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva May 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 11 $10 −$3 -28%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Jelena Ostapenko May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $66 +$37 +56%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $96 +$64 +67%
Romania No-Confidence vote passes? May 06 $112 +$21 +18%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $96 +$14 +14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 31 $50 +$24 +47%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $15 −$15 -98%
Women's Knockout - Switzerland vs. Sweden Mar 26 $30 +$53 +178%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 01 $21 +$23 +113%
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 375000 Oct 10 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Celtic win on 2025-10-02? Oct 03 $40 +$51 +127%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET? Oct 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30? Oct 01 $20 +$36 +178%
Will Italy win on 2025-09-08? Sep 09 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 08 $20 +$24 +122%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31? Aug 31 $3 +$1 +43%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-31? Aug 31 $2 +$3 +150%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Aug 31 $10 +$5 +54%
French Open: Alcaraz vs. Sinner Jun 21 $4 +$1 +19%
French Open: Sabalenka vs. Gauff Jun 07 $24 −$20 -84%
French Open: Sinner vs. Bublik Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
French Open: Zverev vs. Djokovic Jun 07 $19 +$5 +25%
French Open: Andreeva vs. Boisson Jun 04 $4 +$6 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $20 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $23 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $20 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $21 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $103 11h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $5 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $31 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 29h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 95¢ $80 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 61¢ $5 3d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 19¢ $20 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 69¢ $10 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 77¢ $10 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 20¢ $35 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 14¢ $2 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 93¢ $0 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Marta Kostyuk $1 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 19¢ $2 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 71¢ $15 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 47¢ $10 11d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $36 16d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 46¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $6 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $4 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.45 · official $13.45 (match) · 129 history records