Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:13:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x0517…ee64 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$445 (+22%) realized +$480 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%17W / 11L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$430
crypto 6% +$7
sports 3% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +6.5% -3.7% 61% 61% +17.0%
≤30d 28 +6.5% -3.7% 61% 61% +17.0%
≤90d 28 +6.5% -3.7% 61% 61% +17.0%
all 28 +6.5% -3.7% 61% 61% +17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 61% +17.0%
10% -12.9% 57% +5.8%
15% -21.3% 43% -4.4%
20% -29.0% 36% -13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$27 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$486
Realized+$480
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses17 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)28 / 33
History coverage4d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 86¢ 66¢ $140 $109 −$31 (-22%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $354 +$188 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$149 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $221 +$25 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $85 +$93 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$12 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $170 −$170 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$16 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $111 +$62 +56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $253 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $150 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $70 40h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $485.91 · official $485.91 (match) · 67 history records