Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
05 0x0518…fb5e crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$284 (-3%) realized −$203 · open −$81
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate80%37W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$745now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$31
politics 31% −$60
other 4% −$217
world 2% +$4
finance 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 36 -12.1% -20.5% 78% 3% -13.5%
all 46 -9.0% -17.6% 80% 4% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 4% -11.7%
10% -25.5% 0% -20.1%
15% -32.7% 0% -27.8%
20% -39.3% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$44 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$745
Realized−$203
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses37 / 9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)46 / 51
History coverage591d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $372 $389 +$17 (+5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $292 $299 +$7 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Yes $106 $35 −$71 (-67%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Yes 13¢ $42 $14 −$27 (-65%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Yes $15 $8 −$7 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $64 +$5 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 01 $13 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 01 $193 +$7 +4%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 01 $199 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $391 +$5 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $52 +$3 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 20 $295 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $93 −$92 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 09 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 06 $99 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? May 03 $96 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 03 $190 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in April? May 02 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 02 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 02 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 02 $199 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 02 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 02 $195 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? May 02 $44 +$6 +15%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? Apr 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? Apr 23 $396 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? Apr 23 $99 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 23 $299 $0 +0%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? Apr 22 $199 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? Apr 20 $250 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? Apr 18 $99 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? Apr 17 $199 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? Apr 12 $244 +$5 +2%
Will Solana reach $140 in February? Mar 12 $199 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on July 1? Feb 20 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 19 $197 +$1 +0%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Feb 19 $95 $0 +0%
Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Jan 14 $117 +$1 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 02 $76 $0 +1%
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 Jan 02 $251 +$8 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Dec 23 $197 +$1 +0%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 22 $109 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 05 $2,613 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $44 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes $15 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes $27 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes $23 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY Yes $45 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $71 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $8 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $94 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $2 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $8 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $197 14d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $13 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $126 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $158 14d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $51 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $60 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $140 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 94¢ $52 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $99 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $99 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $99 32d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $13 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $99 35d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $93 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $99 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $745.30 · official $745.30 (match) · 220 history records