Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
05 0x0519…3b47 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$697 (+36%) realized +$702 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$721
other 11% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +31.3% +18.8% 78% 78% +26.2%
≤30d 18 +31.3% +18.8% 78% 78% +26.2%
≤90d 18 +31.3% +18.8% 78% 78% +26.2%
all 18 +31.3% +18.8% 78% 78% +26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.8% 78% +26.2%
10% +7.4% 72% +14.1%
15% -2.9% 67% +3.1%
20% -12.5% 56% -7.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$75 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized+$702
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage3d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? No 63¢ 62¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 62¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $101 +$45 +44%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 +$314 +307%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $101 +$60 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $101 +$80 +79%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $101 +$56 +55%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $101 +$50 +49%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $101 +$53 +52%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $101 +$59 +58%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $101 +$54 +54%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 +$51 +50%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$19 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY No 63¢ $101 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $102 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 25h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $51 32h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $51 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 69¢ $101 32h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $101 32h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? SELL No 90¢ $157 44h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 44h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $151 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $101 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 45h
United States to win the second half? SELL No 89¢ $154 46h
United States to win the second half? BUY No 58¢ $101 46h
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? SELL No 91¢ $160 47h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $154 47h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 2d
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $156 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 53¢ $101 2d
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 87¢ $152 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $101 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $101 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 SELL Under 82¢ $120 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.20 · official $195.20 (match) · 34 history records